Sunday, May 18, 2008
US plan for Lebanon attack revealed
Sun, 18 May 2008 18:13:12
http://www.presstv.com/detail.aspx?id=56297§ionid=351020203
The White House had given the green light to Israel to attack Lebanon's Hezbollah on May 11th, Israeli intelligence sources have revealed.
They said that, on May 10, the US government urged the Israeli army to launch a fierce military strike on Southern and Western Beirut as well as other Lebanese regions, DEBKA website which is close to Israeli intelligence agency reported.
May eleven was the day when Hezbollah forces were engaged in street battles with opposition militiamen in Beirut and other Lebanese regions.
Two controversial decsions made by the pro-US ruling majority against Hezbollah's telecommunication network and Beirut Airport's Security Chief mounted tensions in Lebanon.
"Israel failed to grasp a historic opportunity to get rid of one of its four enemies (Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, and Hamas). This would certainly lead to the destruction of Hezbollah," DEBKA quoted a senior US military source as saying.
The report said US president George W. Bush had promised not to postpone his May 14 visit to Israel even if the Israeli army was still fighting in Lebanon and Hezbollah struck back against Tel Aviv and Ben-Gurion airport.
American intelligence estimated that Hezbollah could retaliate by firing only 600 missiles into northern Israel.
Israeli premier Ehud Olmert, war minister Ehud Barak, foreign minister Tzipi Livni were the only officials who were informed about the US secret plan, the report added.
Olmert, Barak and Livni decided not to intervene and cancelled the operation at the last moment. The decision outraged hawkish echelons in the Bush administration.
On May 11, Olmert called Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and his allies, majority leader Saad Hariri, Druze politician Walid Jumblatt and Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea and informed them there would be no Israeli strike against Hezbollah.
According to the plan Israeli Air force were to bombard Hezbollah's positions.
This would provide the pro-government forces with an opportunity to attack Hezbollah forces. Israeli tanks would simultaneously drive into the South and head towards Beirut, the report said.
Israel and its staunch ally, the US, have long been seeking to destroy Hezbollah's military capabilities particularly after the Arab resistance group inflicted a humiliating defeat upon the Zionist regime in the 33-day war in 2006.
Pundits say Israel failed to go ahead with the plan because of the military deterrence of Hezbollah.
Wednesday, May 14, 2008
A deadly miscalculation in Lebanon - May 14, 2008
By Sami Moubayed
DAMASCUS - The Lebanese government made a fatal underestimation of how far leaders of the Shi'ite group Hezbollah would go to preserve what they believe are their rights, such as an intelligence network and the freedom to carry weapons.
The result is at least 81 people dead in clashes across the country since violence erupted on May 6; a political and military victory for Hezbollah and Iran and a stinging setback for the government and Saudi Arabia.
The crises was sparked last week in Beirut when the government
of Prime Minister Fouad al-Siniora ordered the communication and surveillance network at Runway 17 of Beirut Airport be dismantled, claiming it was "illegal and unconstitutional".
The decision was taken at a cabinet meeting on May 6 that lasted until 4 am, lobbied for by Telecommunications Minister Marwan Hamadeh. The network is one of the primary espionage tools used by Hezbollah in its war against Israel, keeping tabs on comings and goings at Beirut Airport.
Adding insult to injury, the Lebanese government dismissed Wafiq Shuqayr, the Shi'ite security commander of the airport, for planting the system in accordance with Hezbollah's wishes, supposedly behind the back of Siniora.
Hezbollah cried foul, claiming the network had been in place for years, adding that dismantling it was a red line because otherwise Beirut Airport would be "transformed into a base for the the CIA, the FBI and Mossad, referring to American and Israeli intelligence.
Hezbollah secretary general Hasan Nasrallah spoke just hours after the crisis started, saying the communication system and Shuqyar were "red lines" that could not be crossed. He reminded his audience that when Siniora became prime minister in 2005, one of the main points of his political program was "supporting the resistance" and giving it (Hezbollah) a free hand to wage its "war of liberation" against Israel in any way it saw fit.
Veteran Shi'ite cleric Abdul-Amir Qabalan, deputy chairman of the Higher Shi'ite Council, contacted the Lebanese government and advised it to back down, warning that Nasrallah must not be provoked and that he would not stand by and watch his security system being torn down. Qabalan said, "Touching this [communication] system affects our nationalism, integrity and loyalty to the nation."
The government refused to change course, arguing that security must be monopolized by the state and that it was inconceivable that a non-state party like Hezbollah could run a parallel security system at Beirut Airport.
In this stubbornness, the government failed to anticipate the value Hezbollah places on what it believed its key rights. Worse, Defense Minister Elias al-Murr, Interior Minister Hasan al-Sabe and Public Persecutor Said Mirza were tasked to create a team to look into other security violations committed by Hezbollah.
Engineering the escalation was Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, a one-time Nasrallah friend now turned enemy, who knew that within 48 hours the United Nations Security Council was due to discuss resolution 1559, regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah, which has yet to be fully implemented.
Nasrallah angrily replied that "we will cut the arm" of whoever tries to dismantle the arms of Hezbollah, claiming that security networks were weapons, just like missiles and guns. He then reminded that in the past, he would always say that "our weapons will never be used internally", but this time he warned that "weapons will be used to guard weapons".
He was not understating the situation. By the evening of May 7, all hell had broken lose in Beirut.
Hezbollah troops took to the streets of the capital and were confronted by armed men loyal to parliamentary majority leader Saad al-Hariri and Druze leader Jumblatt. Road blocks were set up all over the city, bringing back haunting memories of the 17-year civil war that ended in 1990, and snipers showed up on rooftops.
The Hariri-led March 14 Coalition cried foul, claiming that Hezbollah had launched a coup and taken over the (in the lightening speed of six hours). Parallels were drawn between Hezbollah's behavior in Beirut and the Hamas takeover of Gaza in 2007.
Nasrallah denied a coup was in the making, saying, "Had we wanted a coup, they [government leaders] would have woken up to find themselves in jail, or [thrown) in the sea."
Hezbollah fighters did storm entire neighborhoods of Beirut loyal to Hariri, aided by Amal militiamen loyal to the Shi'ite speaker of parliament, Nabih Berri, an ally of Nasrallah. The poor training and weaponry of the Hariri team was no match for the sophisticated war machine of Hezbollah, which managed to ward off a massive Israeli attack in 2006.
So amateurish were Hariri's men that it almost seemed as if they had no arms at all. They were round up in hours, disarmed and handed over to the Lebanese army. Rather than take control of the districts - to prove that this was not a coup - Hezbollah fighters called up the army, a third party, asking it to take control.
Vandalism did take place, and so did an ugly exchange of words between Hezbollah's team, who are all Shi'ite, and Hariri's men, who are all Sunnis. One of the most telling acts was shutting down all of Hariri's media outlets, which were very active in spreading anti-Hezbollah propaganda, including Future TV, Future News, Orient Radio and Future Newspaper. All of these were taken over by Hezbollah and then handed to the army, yet hoodlums did manage to break into Future TV and set one floor ablaze.
Many saw this as a proxy war between the Saudi Arabia-backed March 14 Coalition and the Iran-backed Hezbollah. Telecommunications Minister Hamadeh said the entire crisis was the doing of Tehran. His boss, Jumblatt, went even further, asking for the expulsion of the Iranian ambassador from Beirut.
Jumblatt's tone changed, however, 48 hours into the confrontation, when the fighting ended in Beirut and shifted to Druze villages overlooking the Lebanese capital. Hezbollah fighters surrounded his palace in Beirut, near the American University of Beirut, but did not invade. It was clear for Jumblatt, one of the United States' main and newfound allies in Lebanon, that it was pointless to resist Hezbollah.
Jumblatt got on the phone with Nabih Berri, the Nasrallah-allied speaker of parliament, and said, "I am a hostage now in my home in Beirut. Tell Sayed Hasan Nasrallah I lost the battle and he wins. So let's sit and talk to reach a compromise. All that I ask is your protection."
Nasrallah and Jumblatt had been good friends and strong allies during the heyday of the Syrian presence in Lebanon. The Druze leader had positioned himself as one of the main protectors of Hezbollah arms throughout the 1990s. A political animal, however, he changed sides when it was clear the Syrians had fallen out with Washington after the Iraq war and he transformed himself into one of the loudest critics of Syrian power in Beirut.
He put his full bet on the Americans, patched up with the George W Bush White House (which he had once accused of staging the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington) and became an aggressive critic of Nasrallah. In his speech on the eve of hostilities, Nasrallah said that the plan to transform Beirut Airport into a base for the US Central Intelligence Agency, the Federal Bureau of Investigation and Mossad was the brainchild of "the government of Walid Jumblatt".
Intense fighting between Druze forces and Shi'ite militiamen raged on in the villages of Shouf, the towns of Aley and Shuwayfat, raising red sirens throughout Lebanon. This is where heavy fighting had taken place in the civil war - and although the war ended nearly 20 years ago - the wounds have not healed.
Two Hezbollah members were killed in the Druze districts, and another disappeared, prompting Jumblatt to give an urgent press conference, accepting blame for the entire ordeal and calling on his troops to lay down their arms, avoid a sectarian outburst, and transfer order of the districts to the Lebanese army.
Jumblatt added, "I must admit that the Iranians are smart and they knew how to play it in Lebanon. They chose a time when the US is weak in the Middle East and did it."
Calm was restored to Beirut when the government, with as much face-saving as possible, revoked its earlier decisions by transferring the issue of the communication system, and the security commander of Beirut Airport, to the army. Instead of executing the orders Army Commander Michel Suleiman, a neutral third party, declared both null. It is still unclear if the Siniora cabinet will issue a formal apology for its actions, as the Hezbollah-led opposition is requesting.
Regardless, it was a political and military victory for Hezbollah.
The March 14 claims it was a moral victory for itself as well, saying that they had helped prevent a civil war by backing down on their earlier legislation. To date, while fighting continues in the Druze mountains, and has even reached as far north as Tripoli, the government has not resigned. Not even has Interior Minister Hassan al-Sabe, who is a member of March 14.
Rumors circulated in Beirut that Siniora wanted to step down when the fighting was at its peek, but was prevented from doing so by Saudi Arabia. The Saudis, enraged by what was happened in Beirut, realized that Iran - and the Syrians - had taken the upper hand in Beirut.
True, Hezbollah has restored all "occupied" districts to the army, but it is clear they were far superior in power, training, arms and logistics to Saudi Arabia's proxies in Lebanon. Additionally, they have done it once. Nothing prevents them from doing it again at any time the Saudi-backed government tries to dismantle, crush or curb Hezbollah's influence.
When a coup is not a coup
Speaking at the southern village of Bint Jbeil in 2005, Nasrallah once said, "There is talk of disarming the resistance. Any thought of disarming the resistance is pure madness. We do not want to attack anyone. We have never done so. And we will never allow anyone to attack Lebanon. But if anyone, no matter who, even thinks about disarming the resistance, we will fight him like the martyr-seekers in Karbala."
That sums it up. Nasrallah will not allow anybody to touch the arms of Hezbollah and is willing to fight to maintain his status, and that of his party, in the Arab-Israeli conflict. His supporters argue that as a pragmatic leader, and a cunning statesman who excels in psychological warfare, he does not want to rule Beirut.
He is neither interested nor politically able (although it would be easy, in military terms). He realizes that the confessional system of Lebanon is too complicated for such a task, and said it bluntly last Wednesday, "If they told us to come take over, we would say 'no thank you'."
Had he wanted a real coup, he would not have transferred control to the Lebanese army, nor would he have laid down his arms in Beirut. He would have invaded and stormed the homes of Jumblatt and Hariri and arrested both of them, along with Siniora, and set up a new government, to his liking, and to that of Iran. But that is an illogical scenario that would never pass.
What he did last week in Beirut was show his power - flex his muscles - and tell the world, "I am still here. Still in control and still powerful - or as some would say, king - in Lebanese politics."
It was a rude wake-up call to all those who imagined he would never go this far to bring his message to the region and the international community.
Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.)
Timeline: Crisis in Lebanon
The Lebanese Shia group Hezbollah has been leading a political campaign against the cabinet seen as anti-Syria, led by Fouad Siniora, the prime minister.
The crisis has paralysed much of the government and left
Hezbollah, allegedly backed by
Here is a chronology of events:
2006
November 11 - Five pro-Syrian Shia Muslim ministers from Hezbollah and its ally, the Amal movement, resign after the collapse of talks on giving their camp more say in government.
November 21 - Pierre Gemayel, the industry minister, is assassinated.
December 1 - Hezbollah, Amal and supporters of Michel Aoun, a Christian leader, camp outside the office of Fouad Siniora, the prime minister, in
2007
January 25 - Aid conference in
June 13 - Anti-Syrian parliamentarian Walid Eido and five other people killed by a car bomb near a
September 2 - Lebanese troops seize complete control of Nahr al-Bared camp after months of fighting with Fatah al-Islam fighters which kills more than 420 people, including 168 soldiers.
September 19 - Car bomb in
November 23 - Emile Lahoud leaves presidential palace at end of his term without successor being elected. Next day Siniora says his cabinet is assuming executive powers.
December 5 - Speaker Berri says rival Lebanese leaders have agreed on General Michel Suleiman as president, although parliament has yet to elect him.
December 12 - Car bomb kills Brigadier-General Francois al-Hajj, the army's head of operations, in a Christian town east of
2008
January 15 - Car bomb in Christian area of
January 25 - Wisam Eid, a captain in a Lebanese police intelligence unit, is killed by a bomb blast in mainly Christian east
February 11 - Three army officers and 16 soldiers are charged over the killing of seven opposition protesters on January 27.
February 14 - Hezbollah holds mass Beirut funeral for its assassinated commander Imad Moughniyah, who was killed in a bomb blast in
April 20 - In the Christian town of
April 22 - Parliament fails to hold a session to elect a president, the 18th time it has been unable to hold a vote.
May 6 - Tension between the government and Hezbollah escalates when the cabinet says the group's communication network was an attack on the country's sovereignty.
Hezbollah says it is infuriated by government allegations it was spying on
May 7 - About 10 people are wounded as government supporters clash with fighters loyal to the Hezbollah-led opposition in
May 8 - Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah's leader, says the government has declared war against the group after its decision to dismantle and take legal action over the group's communication network.
Gun battles break out in Beirut, leaving several dead and many wounded.
An offer by Saad al-Hariri, the governing coalition leader, to refer the issue to the army, which has stayed neutral, is rejected by Hezbollah.
May 9 - Opposition forces seize control of west Beirut.
May 10 - Fouad Siniora, Lebanon's prime minister, declares that the government will never declare war on Hezbollah but says the Shia group is trying to stage a coup.
The army rescinds government's demands, saying it will reinstate Beirut airport's head of security, who the government alleged was close to Hezbollah, and will handle the issue of the Hezbollah's communication network.
Army also calls on the opposition to withdraw its fighters from the streets.
Hezbollah and other groups allied to the opposition begin to pull their forces from Beirut, with the army taking over in a neutral security role.
May 10-11 - Pro- and anti-government fighters clash overnight in the northern city of Tripoli. The Lebanese army is deployed to restore calm.